2027 Medicare Advantage Market Study

Executive Summary

The 2027 Medicare plan market changed substantially even though the total
number of unique Plan-ID/segment entities changed relatively little.

The CMS Landscape contained 5,965 unique Plan-ID/segment entities
in 2026 and 5,884 in 2027, a net decline of 81 entities, or 1.4%.

That small net decline masks substantially greater market turnover.
1,148 Plan-ID/segments are new for 2027, while 1,229 Plan-ID/segments
available in 2026 no longer appear in the 2027 Landscape.

The analysis also found substantial changes in product mix, beneficiary
cost exposure among continuing plans, and geographic plan availability.

• C-SNP inventory increased from 557 to 752 Plan-ID/segments across
  HMO, PPO, and HMO-POS C-SNP categories, an increase of approximately 35%.
• PPO C-SNP inventory increased 81.3%, from 96 to 174 Plan-ID/segments.
• Among continuing general-market MA-PD plans, average Part D deductibles
  increased between 25.8% and 32.5% across PPO, HMO, and HMO-POS plans.
• Maximum out-of-pocket limits also increased among continuing PPO,
  HMO, and HMO-POS plans.
• 29 of 51 states and jurisdictions analyzed had fewer MA-family
  Plan-ID/segments available for 2027.

Study at a Glance

Finding 1: Small Net Decline Masks Large Plan Turnover

The complete CMS Landscape plan universe declined from 5,965 unique
Plan-ID/segment entities in 2026 to 5,884 in 2027.

The net decline of 81 Plan-ID/segments therefore understates the amount
of change occurring beneath the national plan count. A total of 2,377
Plan-ID/segments either entered or left the CMS Landscape between the
two plan years.

Finding 2: C-SNP Inventory Expands While Traditional PPO Inventory Contracts

One of the largest product-mix changes for 2027 occurred among Chronic
Condition Special Needs Plans (C-SNPs).

Across HMO, PPO, and HMO-POS C-SNP categories, inventory increased from
557 Plan-ID/segments in 2026 to 752 in 2027, an increase
of 195, or approximately 35%.

The three D-SNP network categories analyzed collectively declined from
1,083 Plan-ID/segments in 2026 to 1,050 in 2027, a decline of approximately 3%.

Finding 3: C-SNP Growth Is Concentrated Among Several Parent Organizations

C-SNP expansion was not distributed evenly across parent organizations.
Devoted Health recorded the largest measured increase in the year-over-year
C-SNP comparison.

Devoted Health C-SNP Growth by Network Type

These figures describe observed product inventory. They do not establish
why a carrier expanded or contracted a particular product category.

Finding 4: Continuing General-Market MA-PD Plans Show Higher Deductibles and Out-of-Pocket Limits

MedicarePlans.com compared cost fields for Plan-ID/segments present in
both the 2026 and 2027 Landscape files. This continuing-plan methodology
avoids mixing newly introduced or departing products into the year-over-year
cost comparison.

Part D Deductible Changes Among Continuing MA-PD Plans

These figures are plan-level averages among continuing plans.
They are not enrollment-weighted estimates and should not be interpreted
as the average amount paid by a Medicare beneficiary.

Finding 5: Medicare Advantage Availability Declines Across 29 States and Jurisdictions

For geographic Medicare Advantage availability, the study includes CMS
contract categories MA, MA-PD, and SNP. Stand-alone PDP and Cost contracts
are excluded.

Of 51 states and jurisdictions analyzed, 29 had fewer MA-family
Plan-ID/segments available for 2027, 21 gained inventory, and one was unchanged.

Selected States With Expanding Medicare Advantage Inventory

The state-level results show that national Medicare Advantage availability
can remain broad while individual markets experience substantial changes
in the number of available plans.

Finding 6: County-Level Changes Show Local Disruption Beneath State Averages

County-level analysis found substantial differences in local Medicare
Advantage availability. Several counties lost more than 20 distinct
MA-family Plan-ID/segments between 2026 and 2027.

County-level plan-count changes measure changes in available plan inventory.
They do not establish how many Medicare beneficiaries are enrolled in plans
that are leaving a county.

Finding 7: 2027 LIS Auto-Enrollment PDPs Are Highly Concentrated

The 2027 CMS Landscape identifies stand-alone Prescription Drug Plans
eligible for Low Income Subsidy (LIS) auto-enrollment and reports the
low-income beneficiary premium after the applicable subsidy.

The LIS analysis is a stand-alone Part D finding and is not included in
the Medicare Advantage availability counts used elsewhere in this study.

New for 2027: Enrollment Capacity Limits Become Observable

CMS added two fields to the 2027 Landscape:
Enrollment Capacity Limit Accepted and
Enrollment Capacity Limit Amount.

These fields identify Medicare Advantage plans with an enrollment capacity
limit accepted by CMS and report the accepted numeric limit.

MedicarePlans.com identified 65 unique Plan-ID/segments with an
accepted enrollment capacity limit in the initial 2027 Landscape.

Once actual 2027 enrollment data become available, these fields can support
a new longitudinal measure:

Enrollment Capacity Utilization = Current Enrollment ÷ Accepted Capacity

This study does not calculate capacity utilization because actual 2027
enrollment is not contained in the initial Landscape file.

What This Study Does Not Measure

This Landscape edition is intentionally limited to conclusions supported
by the CMS Landscape data and the year-over-year comparisons described
in the methodology.

• The study does not infer why a carrier added, removed, expanded, or
  contracted a particular product.
• It does not predict where Medicare beneficiaries will enroll in 2027.
• It does not estimate the number of beneficiaries affected by terminating
  plans. That analysis requires joining departing Plan-ID/segments with
  enrollment data.
• It does not yet compare 2027 dental, vision, hearing, OTC, food,
  transportation, or other supplemental benefits because 2027 PBP data
  have not been incorporated.
• It does not compare 2027 Star Ratings or other quality measures because
  2027 Performance data have not been incorporated.
• It does not compare detailed 2027 Medicare.gov Plan Compare benefits
  because Medicare.gov had not transitioned its public Plan Compare
  experience to 2027 when this analysis was prepared.
• It does not treat D-SNP maximum out-of-pocket limits as equivalent to
  ordinary beneficiary financial exposure.
• It does not treat plan-level averages as enrollment-weighted beneficiary
  averages.
• It does not infer causality from observed year-over-year changes.

The purpose of this study is narrower: to measure what changed in CMS plan
inventory, product mix, selected cost fields, and geographic availability
between 2026 and 2027.

Methodology

Data Sources

The study compares the CMS CY2026 and initial CY2027 Medicare Advantage
(Part C) and Prescription Drug Plan (Part D) Landscape files.

The initial CY2027 Landscape was released September 22, 2026. CMS states
that Landscape data are subject to change as contracts are finalized.

Plan Entity Definition

The primary plan entity used in this study is the unique combination of:

• Contract ID
• Plan ID
• Segment ID

This combination is represented in the analysis as a
Plan-ID/segment.

Because CMS Landscape data repeat plan entities across geographic service
areas, raw Landscape row counts are not used as national plan counts.

New and Departing Plan-ID/Segments

A Plan-ID/segment is classified as new for 2027 when it
appears in the 2027 Landscape but not the 2026 Landscape.

A Plan-ID/segment is classified as departing after 2026
when it appears in the 2026 Landscape but not the 2027 Landscape.

Medicare Advantage Geographic Availability

State and county Medicare Advantage availability includes CMS contract
categories:

• MA
• MA-PD
• SNP

Stand-alone PDP and Cost contracts are excluded from Medicare Advantage
availability counts.

Each Plan-ID/segment is counted once within each state or county in which
it appears.

Continuing-Plan Cost Analysis

Premium, Part D deductible, and maximum out-of-pocket comparisons use
Plan-ID/segments present in both the 2026 and 2027 Landscape files.

CMS values reported as Not Applicable are treated as
missing values rather than converted to zero.

The resulting averages are plan-level measurements. They are not weighted
by plan enrollment.

Current Data Boundary

This Landscape edition does not yet incorporate 2027 PBP benefits,
Star Ratings and Performance data, Medicare.gov Plan Compare details,
or actual 2027 enrollment.

Those datasets can be incorporated into subsequent editions while retaining
the same Plan-ID/segment entity methodology established here.

Conclusion: Stability at the Top Line, Restructuring Underneath

The initial 2027 CMS Landscape does not describe a Medicare plan market
that simply grew or shrank.

It describes a market being reconfigured.

A net decline of only 81 Plan-ID/segments sits on top of
2,377 additions and departures. C-SNP inventory expanded
sharply, traditional PPO inventory contracted, continuing general-market
MA-PD plans showed higher Part D deductibles and maximum out-of-pocket
limits, and MA-family availability declined across 29 states and jurisdictions.

The geographic results also show why national availability alone does not
describe every local Medicare market. Individual states and counties
experienced materially different changes in available plan inventory.

Additional 2027 CMS datasets will make it possible to extend this analysis
from plan inventory and selected costs into supplemental benefits, quality,
enrollment displacement, and actual enrollment patterns.